‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their fuel reserves have depleted with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been caused by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.