From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”