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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|