🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.